4 Comments
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Dapper's avatar

We need a close above 2.25 for the first price target to be technically met. Currently price extensions over 2.25, are 2.48, 2.75, 2.98, 3.62. I would guess EOY price should average 3.50, unless a new fundamental catalyst comes into play.

Spencer's avatar

Thanks for dropping by with these price targets! I appreciate your commentary.

I think I'm on board with a close above $2.25 being the technical target (I now realize I was remiss in not adding the specific levels on #4 in the TA section).

Looks to me that $2.25 level coincides with not only a previous area of congestion, but also where you would roughly end up after a measured move on the bull flag if we see a continuation from ~$1.7, and is where you would approximately end up if the double-bottom pattern is completed.

I'm guessing there's going to be some added turbulence at the $2.25 level on account of $2.25 being the strike price of the warrants.

I agree with your assessment of EOY price as well if they meet expectations... it seems the market is hesitant to buy into the growth story that Al is telling.

Speaking of new fundamental catalysts... if Al & team can find a way to begin eliminating the warrant overhang then I'm optimistic we could see the share price appreciate past that $3.50 estimate this year! But taking out the warrants seems like a long-shot as of right now.

Cheers Dapper!

Dapper's avatar

Right, warrants are exercisable at $2.25. So it really depends on whether or not retail has the $$ to convert or if they are only swinging warrants.

Spencer's avatar

Good point. Not only that, but the more the share price increases to push those warrants ITM then the higher the likelihood of future dilution that the stock will have to price in; causing further drag on price appreciation. Including those warrants as a part 91M units issued is turning out to be a bit of a conundrum for management and I can see how it’s pinning us at $2.25/share.

In addition, the way I understand it, is if the warrants are ultimately exercised ITM then the company will actually be diluting itself for less than what a share will be worth on the open market.

Perhaps an offering later on for working capital requirements as needed at a higher share price would have been more optimal 🤷‍♂️.